2 Ethiopia

Relevant sources of household-level micro records for Ethiopia include:

2011/12 ERSS (ESS Wave 1)
2013/14 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Surveys (ESS Wave 2)
2015/16 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Surveys (ESS Wave 3)
2012/13 Ethiopia’s Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS)
2012 ATA Baseline Survey (3,000 hhlds), see (Minot & Sawyer, 2013).

The ERSS 2011/12 sample is designed to be representative of rural and small town areas of Ethiopia. It is a sub-sample of the 2011/2012 Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS). The small town sample comes from the universe of small town EAs. The ERSS sample size provides estimates at the national level for rural and small town households. At the regional level, it provides estimates for four regions including Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray. The sample is a two-stage probability sample. The first stage of sampling entailed selecting primary sampling units, which are a sample of the CSA enumeration areas (EAs). For the rural sample, 290 EAs were selected from the AgSS EAs. The AgSS EAs were selected based on probability proportional to size of the total EAs in each region. For small town EAs, a total of 43 EAs were selected. In order to ensure sufficient sample in the most populous regions (Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray), quotas were set for the number of EAs in each region. The sample is not representative for each of the small regions including Afar, Benshangul Gumuz, Dire Dawa, Gambella, Harari, and Somali regions. However, estimates can be produced for a combination of all smaller regions as one “other regions” category.

The 2nd wave ESS 2013/14 adds samples from large town areas. The population frame for the urban expansion consists of all households in towns with population greater than 10,000 people. This population cut off of 10,000 people is the same threshold that is used to define small towns. This wave is nationally representative. The existing panel data (2011/12-2013/14) is only for rural and small towns. The ESS sample size provides estimates at the national level for rural and small town households. At the regional level, it provides estimates for five regions including Addis Ababa, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, Tigray, and “other regions”.

Note that FAO RIGA-H database is not yet available for ESS Wave 3 (as of Nov 8, 2017).

2.1 Household Sampling and Stratification

Table 2.1: Composition of Ethiopia ESS Harmonized Survey Samples
Survey	Regions	Districts	Sample	Rural	Urban	Farm hhlds	Rural (pct)	Urban (pct)	Farm hhlds (pct)
eth-ess-2013	11	102	5,128	3,211	1,917	3,750	63	37	73
eth-erss-2011	10	81	3,969	3,466	503	3,513	87	13	89

Figure 2.1: (Appoximate) Household Locations and Stratification across Survey Waves, Ethiopia

Table 2.2: Attrition of Households across Panels, Ethiopia
Survey	1 visit	2 visits
2013/14	1,473	3,655
2011/12	314	3,655

Out of the 3,969 households recorded in the 2011 ERSS 3,655 households were re-visited in all 2 waves, while 1,473 out of 5,128 households in the second ESS 2013 sample were only interviewed once. This is due to attrition and tracking of split households across waves.

2.2 Distribution of Farm Holdings across Farm Sizes and Farm Types

The plots below show the distribution of key variables in the unweighted sample of households across survey waves. The median line is in red, mean line in green, and the blue region is the inferred 95% confidence interval of the mean.

2.2.1 Land Holding

Figure 2.2: Trends in Farm Sizes across Survey Waves (ha)

2.2.2 Trends in Commercialization

Figure 2.3: Crop Commercialization across Survey Waves (percent of crop production)

Figure 2.4: Agricultural Commercialization across Survey Waves (percent of ag. production)

2.2.3 Trends in Income Diversification

The shares of farm and non-farm income are derived from RIGA components, namely:

aggross = totagprod + farmrntimp + agr_wge+ ifelse(selfimp1 < 0, NA, selfimp1)
naggross = transfersgrossimp + otherincimp + nonfarmrntimp + nonagr_wge + ifelse(selfemp < 0, NA, selfemp)

Figure 2.5: Non-Farm Income (percent of gross income)

2.2.4 3x3 Farm Classification

Figure 2.6: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Farm Sizes and Categories

Table 2.3: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (ESS, 2013/14, percent)
		Crop Commercialization
		\(\leq\) 2 ha			2-4 ha			\(>\) 4 ha
Income Diversification		LoC	MeC	HiC	LoC	MeC	HiC	LoC	MeC	HiC
LoD	mean	48.47	26.62	2.17	5.51	5.74	0.03	0.72	0.6	0.04
	CI	44.1 - 52.9	23.1 - 30.2	1.2 - 3.1	4.2 - 6.9	3.9 - 7.6	0 - 0.1	0.3 - 1.2	0.1 - 1.1	0 - 0.1
MeD	mean	4.32	1.40	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.00	0.03	0.0	0.00
	CI	3.2 - 5.5	0.8 - 2	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 0.7	0 - 0.7	0 - 0	0 - 0.1	0 - 0	0 - 0
HiD	mean	2.42	0.50	0.15	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.02	0.0	0.00
	CI	1.7 - 3.1	0.2 - 0.8	0 - 0.3	0 - 0.2	0 - 0.3	0 - 0	0 - 0.1	0 - 0	0 - 0

Table 2.4: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (ERSS, 2011/12, percent)
		Crop Commercialization
		\(\leq\) 2 ha			2-4 ha			\(>\) 4 ha
Income Diversification		LoC	MeC	HiC	LoC	MeC	HiC	LoC	MeC	HiC
LoD	mean	58.06	15.92	2.13	10.83	2.06	0	1.59	0.63	0
	CI	53.2 - 62.9	12.2 - 19.7	0.6 - 3.6	8.6 - 13.1	1 - 3.1	0 - 0	0.9 - 2.3	0.1 - 1.2	0 - 0
MeD	mean	3.95	0.99	0.96	0.01	0.04	0	0.00	0.00	0
	CI	2.8 - 5.1	0.5 - 1.5	0.2 - 1.7	0 - 0	0 - 0.1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
HiD	mean	1.85	0.33	0.39	0.26	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0
	CI	1.1 - 2.6	0 - 0.6	0 - 0.7	0 - 0.8	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

Proportions of small holdings across categories (farms below 4 ha).

Table 2.5: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (ESS all waves, percent, farms below 4 ha)
			Crop Commercialization
Year	Income Diversification		LoC	MeC	HiC
2013/2014	LoD	mean	54.76	32.83	2.23
		CI	50.1 - 59.4	28.3 - 37.4	1.2 - 3.2
	MeD	mean	4.75	1.70	0.45
		CI	3.5 - 6	1 - 2.4	0.1 - 0.8
	HiD	mean	2.54	0.60	0.15
		CI	1.8 - 3.3	0.3 - 0.9	0 - 0.3
2011/2012	LoD	mean	70.46	18.39	2.18
		CI	65.2 - 75.7	14.1 - 22.6	0.7 - 3.7
	MeD	mean	4.05	1.05	0.98
		CI	2.9 - 5.2	0.5 - 1.6	0.2 - 1.7
	HiD	mean	2.15	0.33	0.40
		CI	1.2 - 3.2	0 - 0.7	0 - 0.8

2.2.5 Simplified Farm Classification (5-class)

Figure 2.7: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Farm Sizes and Categories

Table 2.6: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (ESS, 2013/14, percent)
		Farm Types
Farm Size		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
\(\leq\) 2 ha	mean	48.47	8.63	26.62	2.17	0.59
	CI	44.1 - 52.9	6.9 - 10.3	23.1 - 30.2	1.2 - 3.1	0.2 - 1
2-4 ha	mean	5.51	0.82	5.74	0.03	0.00
	CI	4.2 - 6.9	0.3 - 1.3	3.9 - 7.6	0 - 0.1	0 - 0
\(>\) 4 ha	mean	0.72	0.05	0.60	0.04	0.00
	CI	0.3 - 1.2	0 - 0.1	0.1 - 1.1	0 - 0.1	0 - 0

Table 2.7: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (ERSS, 2011/12, percent)
		Farm Types
Farm Size		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
\(\leq\) 2 ha	mean	58.06	7.11	15.92	2.13	1.34
	CI	53.2 - 62.9	5.6 - 8.6	12.2 - 19.7	0.6 - 3.6	0.5 - 2.2
2-4 ha	mean	10.83	0.31	2.06	0.00	0.00
	CI	8.6 - 13.1	0 - 0.8	1 - 3.1	0 - 0	0 - 0
\(>\) 4 ha	mean	1.59	0.00	0.63	0.00	0.00
	CI	0.9 - 2.3	0 - 0	0.1 - 1.2	0 - 0	0 - 0

Proportions of small holdings across categories (farms below 4 ha)

Table 2.8: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Categories (TNPS all waves, percent, farms below 4 ha)
		Farm Types
Year		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
2013/2014	mean	54.76	9.59	32.83	2.23	0.60
	CI	50.1 - 59.4	7.8 - 11.3	28.3 - 37.4	1.2 - 3.2	0.2 - 1
2011/2012	mean	70.46	7.59	18.39	2.18	1.37
	CI	65.2 - 75.7	5.9 - 9.3	14.1 - 22.6	0.7 - 3.7	0.5 - 2.2

2.3 Farm Segmentation along Farm Types (5-class) and Agricultural Potential Quadrants

Figure 2.8: Agricultural Potential Quadrants, Ethiopia

2.3.1 All Farms

Figure 2.9: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Farm Sizes and Quadrants (all farm sizes combined)

Table 2.9: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Types and Quadrants (ESS2, 2013/2014, percent)
		Farm Types
Quadrant		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
agpot-lo / mkt-lo	mean	23.99	3.26	13.37	0.41	0.11
	CI	19 - 29	2.2 - 4.3	9.3 - 17.4	0.1 - 0.7	0 - 0.3
agpot-lo / mkt-hi	mean	13.26	2.24	7.64	0.38	0.09
	CI	8.6 - 18	1.3 - 3.2	4.2 - 11	0.1 - 0.7	0 - 0.2
agpot-hi / mkt-lo	mean	5.80	1.30	5.26	0.44	0.03
	CI	3.2 - 8.4	0.5 - 2.1	2.5 - 8	0 - 0.9	0 - 0.1
agpot-hi / mkt-hi	mean	11.66	2.71	6.68	1.02	0.35
	CI	7.2 - 16.2	1.6 - 3.8	4.3 - 9	0.2 - 1.8	0.1 - 0.7

Table 2.10: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Types and Quadrants (ERSS, 2011/2012, percent)
		Farm Types
Quadrant		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
agpot-lo / mkt-lo	mean	31.76	2.88	6.74	0.33	0.03
	CI	25.9 - 37.6	1.9 - 3.9	3.9 - 9.6	0 - 0.6	0 - 0.1
agpot-lo / mkt-hi	mean	15.62	1.80	4.89	0.31	0.28
	CI	10.8 - 20.5	0.9 - 2.7	2.1 - 7.7	0 - 0.7	0 - 0.6
agpot-hi / mkt-lo	mean	9.15	0.63	1.79	0.03	0.02
	CI	5.5 - 12.8	0.1 - 1.1	0.5 - 3	0 - 0.1	0 - 0.1
agpot-hi / mkt-hi	mean	13.95	2.12	5.20	1.47	1.01
	CI	9.2 - 18.7	0.9 - 3.4	1.9 - 8.5	0 - 2.9	0.2 - 1.8

2.3.2 Small Farms (below 4 ha)

Figure 2.10: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Farm Sizes and Quadrants (farms below 4 ha)

Table 2.11: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Types and Quadrants (ESS, 2013/2014, percent, farms below 4 ha)
		Farm Types
Quadrant		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
agpot-lo / mkt-lo	mean	24.04	3.27	13.17	0.37	0.12
	CI	19.1 - 29	2.2 - 4.4	9.3 - 17	0.1 - 0.6	0 - 0.3
agpot-lo / mkt-hi	mean	13.33	2.27	7.67	0.39	0.09
	CI	8.7 - 18	1.3 - 3.2	4.3 - 11.1	0.1 - 0.7	0 - 0.2
agpot-hi / mkt-lo	mean	5.75	1.32	5.21	0.45	0.03
	CI	3.2 - 8.3	0.5 - 2.2	2.4 - 8	0 - 0.9	0 - 0.1
agpot-hi / mkt-hi	mean	11.64	2.73	6.78	1.03	0.36
	CI	7.1 - 16.1	1.6 - 3.9	4.4 - 9.2	0.2 - 1.9	0.1 - 0.7

Table 2.12: Est. Proportions of Farm Holdings across Types and Quadrants (ERSS, 2011/2012, percent, farms below 4 ha)
		Farm Types
Quadrant		SUB	TRANS	PRCOMM	SPCOMM	DIV
agpot-lo / mkt-lo	mean	31.71	2.94	6.57	0.33	0.03
	CI	25.8 - 37.6	1.9 - 3.9	3.9 - 9.3	0 - 0.7	0 - 0.1
agpot-lo / mkt-hi	mean	15.50	1.84	4.73	0.31	0.29
	CI	10.7 - 20.3	0.9 - 2.7	2 - 7.4	0 - 0.7	0 - 0.6
agpot-hi / mkt-lo	mean	9.17	0.64	1.83	0.03	0.02
	CI	5.5 - 12.8	0.1 - 1.1	0.5 - 3.1	0 - 0.1	0 - 0.1
agpot-hi / mkt-hi	mean	14.08	2.17	5.27	1.50	1.03
	CI	9.3 - 18.9	0.9 - 3.5	1.9 - 8.6	0 - 3	0.2 - 1.8